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Formal Results, using empirical normalization

A Bottom Line Graph pictures the history of accumulated deviations from expectation.

The Hypothesis Registry defines formal events. Detailed analyses are linked from Table 2 below.

Exploratory Studies provide additional insight, and help develop formal hypotheses.

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Introduction

More than a decade after its inception, the GCP continues to develop. There are over 60 active eggs in the network, in Europe, the US, Canada, India, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Africa, Thailand, South America, Australia. We hypothesize that our instrument (the network of "eggs") will show anomalous deviations associated with Global Events when there is widespread participation or reaction to the event.

The original GCP Prediction Registry provided narrative descriptions of tests made up to mid 2003, in several categories. As of 2003, the process was formalized using a regular set of required specifications. The test events are entered into a table in our Formal Hypothesis Registry which provides a priori identification and complete specification of all parameters we use for statistical analysis and inferences.

Statistical evaluations use a "normalized" database, with normalization based on an empirical estimate of variance for each egg, calculated from its full database of trials. In addition we exclude all "bad data" identified by standardized rules (e.g., trial scores outside the range 55 to 145 are almost certainly errors). The formal database also excludes 13 poorly defined or partially redundant events marked in the results table with a red asterisk. Cases with no normalized calculation are marked with a double asterisk. Statistics for very recent events (marked with ~) will change slightly when normalized calculations are done.

Analysis in early 2008 suggested that several early events prior to December 1998 were recorded when the network was unstable, resulting in a risk of bias. A results table and graph for the period Dec 1998 to Jan 2008 allows comparison which indicates that removing or keeping these early trials doesn't make a critical difference in conclusions. However, the instability of the early data adds noise, and they are therefore excluded from our more comprehensive analyses.

Table 1 shows the composite result for all formally specified events that meet our stringent critera for rigorous definition and analysis.

In Table 2, the results for individual events are shown. Table entries for most events have direct links to more comprehensive analyses. The events are identified by name, and a column with the heading, "Hypothesis Source", indicates who made the prediction. The number of contributing "REGs" is shown, and the "Resolution", which indicates the block-size for the analysis. The last two columns show the Z-score statistic for the analysis, and its associated probability.

Following Table 2, the composite numerical results summarized in Table 1 and detailed in Table 2 are presented visually. The accumulating evidence for the general hypothesis is shown in a chronological graph of the formal data. In such a display the terminal value corresponds to the overall Z-score.


Table 1: Overall Summary of Results, August 1998 to Apr 2013
Category Hypothesis Number of Events Stouffer Z Probability
Rigorously Defined Events Positive Deviation 439 7.011 1.180x10-12


Table 2: Results for Individual Events

red = significant; light red = predicted direction; green = opposite and significant

Event Description Hypothesis Source REGs Resolution Z-score

Probability
1. Embassy Bombings, 980807 Nelson 3 15-min 3.209 0.001
2. * Omagh Bombings, 980815 Nelson 4 15-min -0.675 0.750
3. US Airstrikes, Afghanistan, 980820 Nelson 6 15-min 1.146 0.126
4. Swissair 111 crash, 980903 Nelson 5 15-min 1.336 0.091
5. McGwire, record homerun, 980908 Nelson 9 15-min 1.320 0.093
6. Clinton Affair Grand Jury, 980911 Nelson 6 15-min 0.387 0.349
7. Nicaragua, Casitas collapse, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min -1.085 0.861
8. Nicaragua, Casitas flooding, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min 1.215 0.113
9. Global Peace Vigil, Twyman, 981113 Nelson 5 15-min 1.223 0.111
10. * Iraq, 11th hour decision, 981126? Nelson 4 15-min -0.412 0.659
11. World Peace Prayer, 981210 Nelson 7 15-min -0.135 0.554
12. Iraq, Bombing, 981217 Nelson 7 15-min -0.535 0.704
13. House votes impeachment, 981219 Nelson 7 15-min -0.934 0.825
14. Christmas Eve, UTC, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -1.026 0.848
15. Christmas Eve, EST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.079 0.531
16. Christmas Eve, PST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.715 0.763
17. New Years, 24 hrs, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec -0.171 0.568
18. * New Years, Times Square, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec 0.871 0.208
19. ** New Years, Euro vs US, 981231 Bierman 9 1-sec 0.845 0.199
20. ** New Years, Maxi vs Mini, 981231 Broughton 9 1-sec (Diff) 1.165 0.122
21. Colombia, Armenia Quake, 990125 Nelson 9 15-min 0.823 0.205
22. Senate acquits Clinton, 990212 Nelson 10 15-min 0.217 0.414
23. Nato Bombs Yugoslavia, 990324 Nelson 12 15-min 1.691 0.045
24. Dow Closes Over 10000, 990329 Cohen, Nelson 12 15-min 0.384 0.350
25. Praying for Peace, 990403 to 0503 Taylor Var 1-min 0.819 0.206
26. Littleton School Tragedy, 990420 Polk 11 15-min -0.844 0.801
27. Autonomy, Israel, PLO, 990505 Kraak 17 15-min -0.057 0.523
28. "Peace at Last", Headlines, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 0.505 0.307
29. Yugo War Ends, Milosevic, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 1.313 0.095
30. * JFK Jr Crash, 30-min, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min 0.283 0.389
31. JFK Jr Crash, 3 Hours, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min 1.344 0.089
32. India, Train Crash, 990801 Nelson 17 15-min 1.813 0.035
33. * Solar Eclipse, 990811 Wackermann, Nelson 20 15-min -0.006 0.502
34. * Turkey, Earthquake, 30-min, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.689 0.754
35. Turkey, Earthquake, 4 Hours, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.171 0.568
36. Japan, Nuclear Accident, 990930 Nelson 21 15-min 1.088 0.138
37. Billion Person Meditation, 991025 Nelson 21 10-min 2.242 0.012
38. * Typhoon, India, 2 Hours, 991029 Nelson 22 15-min -0.583 0.720
39. Typhoon, India, 24 Hours, 991029-30 Nelson 23 15-min -0.039 0.516
40. Earthquake, Turkey II, 2 Hrs ±, 991112 Dunne 21 15-min -0.105 0.542
41. Full Moon, Solstice, 4.8 Min, 991222 Fournier 25 1-sec, epoch -0.845 0.801
42. New Year, Y2K, 24 hrs, 19991231 Nelson 28 1-sec, epoch -0.407 0.658
43. New Year, Y2K, Variance, 19991231 Radin 27 1-sec, epoch 0.157 0.438
44. ** Hi vs Low Populations, Y2K, 991231 Nelson 27 1-sec (diffs) -0.647 0.741
45. Just A Minute, 1 Min Epoch, 20000101 Srinivasan 27 1-sec, epoch 0.697 0.243
46. Papal Visit, Israel, 20000321-26 Reinhilde 27-29 1-min 2.428 0.008
47. Great Experiment II, 20000423 Nelson 26 1-sec -0.230 0.591
48. World Earth Healing Day, 20000504 Nelson 26-27 1-sec -0.413 0.660
49. Concorde Crash, Paris, 20000725 Reinhilde 23 1-sec -0.715 0.763
50. Kursk Tragedy, 30-min, 20000812 Nelson 27 1-sec 1.625 0.052
51. Kursk, 10 days, 20000812-21 Nelson 24-27 1-min 1.330 0.092
52. US TV: Survivors Finale, 20000824 Lettieri 26 1-sec -0.471 0.681
53. Peace Summit Relig Spirit, 20000828-31 Murali Dhar 26 1-min -0.446 0.672
54. Olympic Opening Ceremony, 20000915 Robin Taylor 25 1-sec 0.022 0.491
55. Group Mind Meditation, 20000924 Nelson 26 1-sec 1.720 0.043
56. Pierre Trudeau Funeral, 20001003 Chino Srinivasan 29 1-sec 1.982 0.024
57. Group Mind Meditation 2, 20001022 Matthew Webb 28 1-sec -2.085 0.981
58. US Election 2000, 20001107, 8, 9 ... Paul Bethke 30-32 1-sec 0.159 0.437
59. Group Mind Meditation 3, 20001112 Matthew Webb 30 1-sec 0.027 0.489
60. Group Mind Meditation 4, 20001126 Matthew Webb 29 1-sec -0.028 0.511
61. Miss World 2000, 20001130 Mukesh Garg 31 1-sec 1.242 0.107
62. US Election 2000, 20001208 Bethke, Nelson 27 1-sec 0.438 0.331
63. US Election 2000, Finality, 20001212 Nelson, Bethke 30 1-sec 0.934 0.175
64. New Year 2000-2001 Mean, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -1.776 0.962
65. New Year 2000-2001 Var, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -0.709 0.761
66. ** Lovewave 010101, 20010101 Nelson, Lettieri 34-35 1-sec 2.688 0.004
67. Central America Quake, 20010113 Nelson 35 1-sec 1.446 0.074
68. Bush Inauguration, 20010120 Nelson 32 1-sec -0.550 0.709
69. Kumbh Mela, India, 20010124 Panchal, Srinivasan 35 1-sec 1.457 0.073
70. Western India Quake, 20010126 Nelson 33 1-sec -1.042 0.851
71. WorldPuja Webcast, 20010331 Joanne Karl, Nelson 36 1-sec 0.591 0.277
72. Johrei Ceremonies, 20010401 Nelson, Ammar 36 1-sec, epoch 1.419 0.078
73. Earth Day, 2001, 20010422 Nelson 32 1-sec 1.595 0.055
74. Full Moon in Taurus, 20010507 Don Watson 28 1-sec 0.948 0.172
75. World Peace Meditation, 20010520 Masami Kondo 34 1-sec 0.773 0.220
76. World Earth Healing Day, 20010621 WEHD Organizer 31 1-sec 0.609 0.271
77. Roll Your Own Blackout, 20010621 Greg, Elissa, Roger 31 1-sec -0.807 0.790
78. Beijing Gets 2008 Olympics, 20010713 Peter Bancel 31 1-sec 0.681 0.248
79. Buddhist Stupa Ceremony, 20010809-17 Peter Bancel 34-37 1-min -0.213 0.584
80. Terrorist Disaster, Sept 11, 20010911 Nelson 37 1-sec 1.873 0.031
81. ** Terror, Variance, Sept 11, 20010911 Dean Radin, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.305 0.096
82. Silent Prayer, Sept 14, 20010914 Doug Mast 35 1-sec 1.087 0.139
83. Sea to Shining Sea, 20010922 Paul Bethke 37 1-sec 1.713 0.043
84. MUM Peace Meditation, 20010923-27 Orme-Johnson 37 1-sec 0.345 0.365
85. Begin Afghan Bombing, 20011007 Nelson 37 1-sec 0.684 0.247
86. Children Pledge Allegiance, 20011012 William Braud 34 1-sec 0.568 0.285
87. Binding Spell on Bin Laden, 20011015 Greg Nelson 35 1-sec 0.616 0.269
88. Assassination in Israel, 20011017 Joseph Menahem 37 1-sec 1.573 0.058
89. World Series, Yankee St, 20011031 Lettieri, Nelson 35 1-sec 0.267 0.395
90. World-Wide Meditation, 20011111 Wolf, Watson 38 1-sec -0.447 0.673
91. Crash of AA 587, 20011112 Nick Reiter, Nelson 39 1-sec -1.123 0.869
92. Ramadan Muslim Prayer, 20011116 Pasternak, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.836 0.033
93. WorldPuja Meditation, 20011116 Ferguson, Nelson 37 1-sec -0.802 0.789
94. George Harrison Tribute, 20011203 Watson, Nelson 42 1-sec 0.222 0.412
95. Sir Peter Blake Murdered, 20011206 Peter French 42 1-sec -0.908 0.818
96. Astrological Moments, 20011209-14 Anonymous, Nelson 42-43 1-sec 2.207 0.014
97. New Year 2001-2002, Mean, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 1.466 0.071
98. New Year 2002, Var, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 0.530 0.298
99. Volcanic Eruption, Congo, 20020117 Ouko, Nelson 46 1-sec -0.034 0.514
100. Astrid Lindgren Dies, 20020128 Suurküla, Nelson 46 1-sec 0.513 0.304
101. Winter Olympic Opening, 20020209 Nelson 46 1-sec 1.215 0.112
102. Sri Lanka Peace Meditation, 20020315 Johnson-Lenz 47 1-sec -0.085 0.534
103. Earthquake, Afghanistan, 20020325 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.680 0.752
104. Passover Bombing, 20020327 Roger Nelson 47 1-sec -.064 0.526
105. Jenin Incursion, Israel, 20020403 Hala Azzam, Nelson 47 1-sec 0.487 0.313
106. Tiger Woods Triumph, 20020414 Ray Anderson 46 1-sec -0.147 0.558
107. Indigo Peace Meditation, 20020420 Don Watson 44 1-sec -1.303 0.904
108. Erfurth School Shooting, 20020426 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 0.756 0.225
109. World Cup Soccer, 20020607 Tobias Bodine 48 1-sec -0.082 0.533
110. Astrological Moments II, 20020620-23 Anonymous, Nelson 47-45 1-sec 1.208 0.114
111. Summer Solstice 2002, 20020621 Joe Giove 45 1-sec -0.636 0.738
112. World Cup Soccer, 20020630 Pedro de Oliveira 45 1-sec 0.147 0.442
113. World Healing Day, 20020822 Tremaine, Giove 50 1-sec 0.993 0.160
114. 911 Anniversary, March Pred, 20020911 Eckhard Etzold 50 1-sec 1.307 0.096
115. 911 Anniversary, Mean, 20020911 Mitchell, Nelson 50 1-sec -1.599 0.945
116. ** 911 Anniversary, Var, 20020911 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.313 0.623
117. Korea's Birthday, 20021003 Martin Bucholtz 51 1-sec -2.060 0.980
118. Bali Bombing, 20021012 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.274 0.608
119. Twyman in Baghdad, 20021012 Multiple Sources 50 1-sec 0.032 0.487
120. EarthDance 2002, 20021012 Petr Douza 50 1-sec -0.056 0.522
121. Wellstone Crash, 20021025 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.489 0.312
122. Chechen Hostage Crisis, 20021026 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.401 0.344
123. Kenyan Terrorist Attacks, 20021128 Pasternak 52 1-sec -0.700 0.758
124. Suicide Bombing, Grozny, 20021227 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.036 0.514
125. New Year, 2003, Mean , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -1.723 0.958
126. New Year, 2003, Var , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -0.303 0.619
127. Tel Aviv Bombing, 20030105 Gadi Guy 52 1-sec -0.008 0.503
128. Antiwar Protests, 20030118 Ashley Young 50 1-sec 1.207 0.114
129. Columbia Shuttle Disaster, 20030201 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -1.014 0.845
130. Peace Meditations, 20030209 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -0.244 0.596
131. Global Peace Demonstrations, 20030215 Nelson 48 1-sec 1.483 0.069
132. Korean Subway Fire, 20030218 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.625 0.266
133. Lysistrata and Women, 20030303 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.707 0.956
134. Gather The Women, 20030308 Carol Hansen Grey 50 1-sec -0.532 0.703
135. Serbian Assassination, 20030312 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.243 0.893
136. Candlelight Vigil, 20030316 Various & Nelson 51 1-sec 1.783 0.037
137. War in Iraq, 20030320 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.422 0.663
138. GE Prayer for Bush, 20030401 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.155 0.562
139. Saddam Falls, War Ends, 20030409 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.341 0.090
140. Bombing in Riyadh, 20030512 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.560 0.288
141. Bombing in Morroco, 20030516 Nelson 50 1-sec 1.071 0.142
142. Earthquake in Algeria, 20030521 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.551 0.291
143. Aqaba Summit, Middle East, 20030604 Nelson 54 1-sec 1.136 0.128
144. Rainbow 4th of July, 20030704 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.693 0.756
145. Love, Peace, Water, 20030725 Nelson 49 1-sec 0.154 0.439
146. Manila Coup Attempt, 20030727 Beth Macdonald 51 1-sec 1.054 0.146
147. Blackout 2003, 20030814 Nelson 48 1-sec -1.205 0.886
148. Baghdad, UN Bombing, 20030819 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.175 0.569
149. Mars Close Approach, 20030827 Adrian Patrut 49-50 1-sec 0.623 0.267
150. World Healing 2003, 20030910 Various 55 1-sec -1.082 0.860
151. 911 Anniversary, 20030911 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.382 0.649
152. Typhoon in Korea, 20030912 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.365 0.358
153. Dalai Lama in NYC, 20030921 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.145 0.442
154. Harmonic Concordance, 20031109 Mirehiel 52 1-sec 0.612 0.270
155. Turkish Synagogue Bomb, 20031115 Various 53 1-sec 0.425 0.335
156.Turkish Bank & Consulate, 20031120 Various 52 1-sec 0.091 0.464
157. Russian Bombing, 20031205 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.488 0.932
158. Saddam Hussein Captured, 20031213 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.451 0.326
159. Opra Winfrey in Africa, 20031218 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.711 0.239
160. Earthquake in Bam, Iran, 20031226 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.618 0.268
161. 60 Seconds for Peace, 20031227 Craig Hamilton 54 1-sec 1.303 0.096
162. New Year, 2004, Mean, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.180 0.429
163. New Year, 2004, Var, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.684 0.753
164. Hadj Ritual Tragedy, 20040201 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.742 0.229
165. Iran Train Explosion, 20040218 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.226 0.110
166. Oscar Ceremonies, 20040229 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.159 0.437
167. Attacks on Shiites, 20040302 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.617 0.269
168. Terror Attacks in Madrid, 20040311 Nelson, Lassen, Bierman 59 1-sec -1.971 0.976
169. Demonstrations in Spain, 20040312 Nelson, Lassen 59 1-sec 1.582 0.057
170. Global Day of Peace, 20040320 Carl Haag, Nelson 57 1-sec -1.324 0.907
171. Cricket, India vs Pakistan, 20040324 Srinivasan, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.243 0.107
172. Rantisi Assassination, 20040417 Nelson 62 1-sec -1.110 0.867
173. Korean Train Explosion, 20040422 Don Watson 60 1-sec 0.746 0.228
174. Floods in Haiti, 20040524 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.534 0.297
175. Iraq Insurgent Bombs, 20040624 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.751 0.226
176. Train Crash, Turkey, 20040722 Don Watson 64 1-sec -0.854 0.803
177. Democratic Conv, Kerry, 20040729 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.881 0.030
178. Fire in Paraguay, 20040801 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.364 0.358
179. Bob Morris, 20040812 Berger, Nelson 63 1-sec 0.461 0.322
180. Olympic Opening Athens, 20040813 Axiomakaros, Piliounis, Nelson 61 1-sec -1.289 0.901
181. Day of Violence, 20040831 Nelson 64 1-sec 1.401 0.081
182. Republican Conv, Bush, 20040902 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.445 0.672
183. Russian School Hostages, 20040903 Nelson 57 1-sec 2.266 0.012
184. Earthdance 2004, 20040919 Nelson and Others 60 1-sec -1.490 0.932
185. Peace Vigil + Hurricane, 20040921 Nelson and Others 62 1-sec -1.533 0.937
186. Bombing, Taba, Egypt, 20041007 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.252 0.105
187. US Elections 2004, 20041102 Nelson and Others 64, 63 1-sec -1.223 0.889
188. Arafat Dead, 20041111 Nelson 64 1-sec 1.583 0.057
189. Tsunami Indian Ocean, 20041226 Nelson 62 1-sec 0.094 0.462
190. New Year, 2005, Mean, 20050101 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.634 0.737
191. New Year, 2005, Var, 20050101 Nelson 57 1-sec -1.838 0.967
192. Elections in Iraq, 20050130 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.606 0.054
193. Hariri Assassination, 20050214 Nelson 60 1-sec 0.169 0.433
194. Siyum Daf Yomi, 20050301 Spero 62 1-sec -0.091 0.536
195. Quake, Indian Ocean, 20050328 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.244 0.404
196. Pope John Paul II Dies, 20050402 GCPIONS Group, Patrut, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.057 0.477
197. Pope John's Funeral, 20050408 Nelson 61 1-sec 1.781 0.037
198. Prince Charles' Wedding, 20050409 Patrut 65 1-sec 1.495 0.067
199. Oraworld Resonance, 20050423 Deotto, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.866 0.031
200. Live 8 Concert, 20050702 Nelson and Others 64 1-sec -2.003 0.977
201. London Bombings, 20050707 Nelson and Others 65 1-sec 0.181 0.428
202. Hurricane Katrina, 20050829 Roffey, Nelson 59 1-sec -0.726 0.766
203. Stampede, Baghdad Bridge, 20050831 Nelson 59 1-sec 2.193 0.014
204. End the War Rally, 20050924 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.638 0.051
205. Bali Bombing 2, 20051001 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.844 0.033
206. Earthquake Pakistan, 20051008 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.739 0.041
207. India Train Crash, 20051029 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.347 0.364
208. India Delhi Bombs, 20051029 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.125 0.450
209. Jordan Bombs, 20051109 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.553 0.060
210. New Year Dev-Net Var, 20051231 Nelson, Bancel 60+ 1-sec, Dev-Net -0.510 0.695
211. New Year Covar Min, 20051231 Nelson, Bancel 60+ Covar, smooth 0.880 0.189
212. Hadj Stoning Stampede, 20060112 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.835 0.202
213. Mudslide Philippines, 20060217 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.771 0.220
214. Golden Dome Bombing, 20060222 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.878 0.810
215. Planetary Play, 20060401 Watson, Nelson 61 1-sec -0.070 0.528
216. Earth Day 2006, 20060422 Vera, Nelson 62 1-sec 1.227 0.110
217. Indonesian Earthquake, 20060527 Nelson 64 1-sec 2.943 0.002
218. Zarkawi News Release, 20060708 Bancel 68 1-sec -0.909 0.818
219. Bombay Train Bombings, 20060711 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.715 0.237
220. Avebury Meditations, 20060722 Koch, Kyborg, Russell, Nelson 63 1-sec 1.033 0.151
221. Qana, Lebanon, 20060730 Nelson 65 1-sec 1.739 0.041
222. Terror Plot Foiled, 20060810 Roffey, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.446 0.074
223. TM Resonance, 20060729-0909 Nelson, Orme-Johnson 65-67 1-sec -2.416 0.992
224. Oraworld Reconciliation, 20061002 Deotto, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.194 0.577
225. Native American Ceremony, 20061007 Nelson 68 1-sec 0.883 0.189
226. US Election Results 2006, 20061108 Roffey, Nelson 64 1-sec 1.429 0.076
227. Gemayel Assassination, 20061121 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.662 0.746
228. Global Deeksha, 20061123 Ardagh, Nelson 64 1-sec 0.006 0.498
229. Global Orgasm for Peace, 20061123 Sheehan, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.604 0.273
230. Saddam's Execution, 20061230 Bancel 68 1-sec -0.091 0.536
231. New Year Mean, 2007, 20070101 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.610 0.271
232. New Year Var, 2007, 20070101 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.580 0.281
233. European Storms, 20070118 Wendt, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.092 0.137
234. Iraq Worst Bombing, 20070203 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.067 0.143
235. World Sound Healing, 20070214 Goldman, Nelson 60 1-sec 0.019 0.492
236. India Train Fire, 20070218 Wendt, Nelson 61 1-sec -1.073 0.858
237. Earth Hour Sydney, 20070331 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.729 0.767
238. Solomon Islands Quake, 20070401 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.445 0.328
239. Virginia Tech Massacre, 20070416 Wendt, Nelson 61 1-sec 1.015 0.155
240. Tai Chi & Chigong Day, 20070428 Douglas, Nelson 62 1-sec 0.855 0.196
241. Global Peace Day, 20070520 Giove, Laszlo, Ferenc, Nelson 60 1-sec -2.113 0.983
242. Lightning and Giuliani, 20070606 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.591 0.277
243. Palestine Split, 20070614 Nelson 60 1-sec 0.751 0.226
244. Live Earth, 20070707 Nelson 56 1-sec -0.095 0.538
245. Fire the Grid, 20070717 Many people 56 1-sec 1.528 0.063
246. Bridge Collapse, 20070801 Wendt, Nelson 58 1-sec 0.106 0.458
247. Peru Earthquake, 20070815 Nelson 56 1-sec 0.504 0.307
248. Burning Man 2007, 20070902 Nelson 61 1-sec 1.541 0.062
249. Global OM, 20070915 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.265 0.395
250. International Day Peace, 20070921 Nelson 59 1-sec -0.897 0.815
251. Gore Wins Nobel, 20071012 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.501 0.066
252. Bomb Bhutto Return, 20071018 Nelson 61 1-sec -1.665 0.952
253. Bangladesh Hurricane, 20071115-6 Wendt, Nelson 51 1-sec 1.401 0.081
254. Algerian Bombs, 20071211 Nelson 59 1-sec -0.150 0.560
255. Bhutto Assassination, 200711227 Roffey, Patrut, Nelson 59 1-sec 0.035 0.486
256. New Year Mean, 2008, 20080101 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.427 0.077
257. New Year Var, 2008, 20080101 Nelson 60 1-sec 1.088 0.138
258. Kandahar Bombs, 20080217 Nelson 56 1-sec -0.502 0.692
259. Attacks in Gaza, 20080301 Nelson 57 1-sec 1.209 0.113
260. Tibet Demonstrations, 20080314 Nelson 58 1-sec 1.458 0.072
261. Earthday 2008, 20080422 Giove, Estara, Nelson 58 1-sec 0.595 0.276
262. Cyclone in Myanmar, 20080503 Wendt, Harke, Nelson 62 1-sec -0.125 0.550
263. World Laughter Day, 20080504 Schaeffner, Nelson 62 1-sec -0.242 0.596
264. Earthquake, China, 20080512 Nelson 60 1-sec -1.597 0.945
265. 3 Min Silence, China, 20080519 Schreiber, Nelson 61 1-sec 0.723 0.235
266. Obama Wins Nomination, 20080603 Weiss, Nelson 58 1-sec 2.153 0.016
267. Kabul Car Bombing, 20080707 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.214 0.415
268. Olympic Opening Beijing, 20080808 Nelson 54 1-sec 1.281 0.100
269. Georgia War Ends, 20080812 Nelson 53 1-sec -0.318 0.625
270. World Meditation, 20080816 Domjan, Nelson 53 1-sec 1.194 0.116
271. Obama Acceptance Denver, 20080829 Zaigraeva, Nelson 53 1-sec 2.039 0.021
272. Palin Acceptance Speech, 20080903 Bancel, Nelson 62 1-sec 1.695 0.045
273. McCain Accepts, St Paul, 20080904 Nelson 57 1-sec -0.273 0.608
274. Peace Intention Expt, 20080904 McTaggart, Bancel, Nelson 56-58 1-sec -1.645 0.950
275. Islamabad Hotel Bombing, 20080920 Wendt, Nelson 57 1-sec -0.568 0.715
276. International Day of Peace, 20080921 Many people 55 1-sec -0.043 0.517
277. Bailout Vote Fails, 20080929 Nelson 57 1-sec 1.255 0.105
278. Temple Stampede Jodhpur, 20080930 Wendt, Nelson 57 1-sec -0.782 0.783
279. Phillies Win World Series, 20081029 Dunne, Nelson 57 1-sec 1.023 0.153
280. US Elections 2008, Obama, 20081029 Bancel, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.635 0.051
281. Mumbai Terror Attacks, 20081126 Bancel, Nelson 54 1-sec -0.590 0.722
282. 3rd Annual Global-O, 20081221 Sheehan, Nelson 57 1-sec 0.590 0.277
283. New Year 2009, Mean, 20090101 Nelson 55 1-sec 1.033 0.151
284. New year 2009, Variance, 20090101 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.505 0.307
285. Gaza Incursion, 20090103 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.581 0.281
286. Miracle on the Hudson, 20090115 Nelson 62 1-sec -1.784 0.963
287. Obama Inauguration, 20090120 Nelson and others 62 1-sec -1.356 0.912
288. Australian Bushfires, 20090207 Nelson 61 1-sec -1.032 0.849
289. Valentine Meditations, 20090214 Goldman, McTavish, Nelson 61 1-sec 2.878 0.002
290. Winnenden School Shooting, 20090311 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.821 0.794
291. G20 News Conference, 20090402 Nelson 66 1-sec 0.884 0.188
292. Binghamton Killing Spree, 20090403 Wendt, Nelson 68 1-sec -0.936 0.825
293. Earthquake L'Aquila Italy, 20090406 Bancel, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.261 0.603
294. Earthday, 2009, 20090422 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.052 0.479
295. Swine Flu Panic, 20090424 Gallardo 70 1-sec -0.180 0.571
296. India Elections 2009, 20090516 Nelson 72 1-sec 0.763 0.223
297. Air France Disappearance, 20090601 Wendt, Nelson 67 1-sec 0.796 0.213
298. Iran Election Protests, 20090619 Nelson 66 1-sec 1.552 0.060
299. Live H2O Celebration, 20090621 Poetschke, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.145 0.442
300. Michael Jackson Dies, 20090625 Wendt, Braidwood, Schneider, Nelson 69 1-sec 0.914 0.180
301. Michael Jackson Memorial, 20090707 Radin, Nelson 67 1-sec -0.163 0.565
302. Wansdyke Path 2009, 20090725 Otto, Koch, Nelson 67 1-sec 1.537 0.062
303. Fire the Grid II, 20090728 Fucetola, Nelson 65 1-sec 0.619 0.268
304. Typhoon Hits Taiwan, 20090807 Nelson 67 1-sec -0.530 0.702
305. Ted Kennedy Dies, 20090825 Nelson 66 1-sec -0.030 0.512
306. Earthquake in Java, 20090902 Nelson 67 1-sec 1.191 0.117
307. Internat Day of Peace, 20090921 Nelson and many others 65 1-sec 1.637 0.051
308. Tsunami in Samoa, 20090929 John Todd, Nelson 62 1-sec 0.195 0.423
309. Earthquake in Padang, 20090930 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.449 0.074
310. Obama Peace Nobel, 20091009 Weiss, Bancel, Nelson 64 1-sec 0.4210 0.337
311. Action 350 for Climate, 20091024 Dowd 64 1-sec 0.052 0.479
312. Baghdad Bombings, 20091025 Wendt, Nelson 64 1-sec 1.505 0.066
313. Fort Hood Massacre, 20091106 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.246 0.403
314. Haj Arafat Vigil, 20091126 Mukesh 69 1-sec -0.454 0.675
315. Haj Stoning Mecca, 20091127 Mukesh 68 1-sec 0.830 0.203
316. Bomb Attempt Dec 25, 20091225 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.276 0.391
~317. New Year Mean, 2010 , 20100101 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.887 0.187
~318. New Year Variance, 2010, 20100101 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.829 0.203
~319. Pakistan Volleyball Bomb, 20100101 Nelson 63 1-sec -1.422 0.923
~320. Earthquake Haiti, 20100112 Nelson 69 1-sec -2.060 0.980
~321. State of the Union, 20100127 Nelson 63 1-sec 0.808 0.210
~322. Olympic Opening Vancouver, 20100212 Nelson 68 1-sec -0.957 0.831
~323. Chile Quake & Tsunami, 20100227 Nelson, Wendt, Erbetta 72 1-sec 1.089 0.138
~324. Health Care Reform, 20100323 Nelson, Shoup 73 1-sec 1.971 0.024
~325. Moscow Subway Bombings, 20100329 Nelson 73 1-sec 0.794 0.214
~326. Mine Explosion, W Va, 20100405 Nelson 66 1-sec -0.122 0.549
~327. Mudslides in Brazil, 20100408 Nelson 72 1-sec -1.165 0.878
~328. Polish President Killed, 20100410 Nelson 70 1-sec 0.607 0.272
~329. Kumbh Mela 2010, 20100414 Others, Nelson 73 1-sec 1.578 0.057
~330. China Earthquake Aftermath, 20100414 Wendt, Nelson 73 1-sec 1.535 0.062
~331. Earthday 2010, 20100422 Many people 71 1-sec -0.237 0.594
~332. Russian Coal Mine, 20100510 Nelson 70 1-sec 1.429 0.077
~333. World Shift Day, 20100516 Nelson 68 1-sec -0.415 0.661
~334. Lahore Religious Terror, 20100528 ASamad Khan 66 1-sec 0.476 0.317
~335. Israel Attacks Flotilla, 20100531 Inci Erkin 65 1-sec 2.036 0.021
~336. World Cup 2010 Begin, 20100611 Others, Nelson 64 1-sec -0.574 0.717
~337. World Cup Final 2010, 20100711 Others, Nelson 66 1-sec -0.120 0.548
~338. Conscious Convergence, 20100717 Many people 70 1-sec 0.447 0.327
~339. Love Parade Tragedy, 20100724 Matthias Braeunig 67 1-sec 2.168 0.015
~340. Pakistani Floods, 20100721-20100801 Abdul Samad Khan 69-70 1-sec -1.165 0.878
~341. Chilean Miners Alive, 20100822 Fernando Erbetta Doyharcabal 61 1-sec 2.137 0.016
~342. Iraq War Ends, 20100831 Roger Nelson 67 1-sec 0.948 0.172
~343. Billion Beats, 20100918 Carlisle Bergquist 71 1-sec 0.486 0.313
~344. Astrology III.1, 20100920 Guido Cante 71 1-sec 1.095 0.137
~345. Internat Peace Day, 20100921 Judith Weiss 68 1-sec -0.580 0.719
~346. 10.10.10 Celebrations, 20101010 Susan Belchamber 63 1-sec -0.161 0.564
~347. Chilean Miners Rescued, 20101013 Doyharcabal, Cammack, Wendt 63 1-sec -0.810 0.791
~348. World Forum 2010, 20101013 Roger Nelson 67+ 1-sec 1.535 0.062
~349. Indonesia Quake Volcano, 20101025 Roger Nelson 68+ 1-sec -0.601 0.726
~350. US Elections 2010, 20101103 Doug D'Elia 74 1-sec 0.487 0.313
~351. 10.11.11 Meditation, 20101111 Many people 69-71 1-sec 1.892 0.029
~352. Cambodia Bridge Tragedy, 20101122 Wendt, Nelson 70 1-sec -1.911 0.972
~353. North, South Korea Shelling, 20101123 Nelson 70 1-sec 1.393 0.082
~354. Wikileaks Diplomatic Cables, 20101128 Kirsten Neiling, Nelson 71 1-sec 1.188 0.118
~355. GoodEarthSingers, 20101224 Roger Nelson 75 1-sec -1.126 0.870
~356. New Year Means, 20110101 Roger Nelson 74 1-sec -0.282 0.611
~357. New Year Var, 20110101 Roger Nelson 74 1-sec 0.412 0.340
~358. Egypt Church Bomb, 20110101 Wendt, Nelson 74 1-sec -0.631 0.736
~359. Congresswoman Giffords, 20110108 Shoup, Nelson 74 1-sec 0.632 0.264
~360. Brazilian Mudslides, 20110112 Nelson, Michael Duggan 72 1-sec 2.330 0.010
~361. Tucson Memorial, 20110112 Nelson 72 1-sec -0.479 0.684
~362. Moscow Airport Bomb, 20110124 Wendt, Nelson 67 1-sec 0.854 0.197
~363. State of the Union 2011, 20110125 Nelson 66 1-sec 1.530 0.063
~364. Day of Rage, Egypt, 20110128 Nelson 66 1-sec 0.088 0.465
~365. Egypt Mubarak Protests, 20110207 Ahmed Fahmy, Nelson 68 1-sec 1.084 0.139
~366. Mubarak Resigns, 20110211 Peter Bancel 66 1-sec -0.666 0.747
~367. Quake Christchurch NZ, 20110222 Sancho Early Jones 69 1-sec 1.134 0.128
~368. Libyan Turmoil Continues, 20110302 Nelson 66 1-sec 1.489 0.068
~369. Women's Day 2011, 20110308 Nelson 66 1-sec -0.326 0.628
~370. Do As One 2011, 20110309 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.586 0.279
~371. Japan Quake Tsunami, 20110311 Tarlaci, Shoup, Nelson 66 1-sec 0.212 0.416
~372. Mideast & Japan, 20110318 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.418 0.338
~373. Water Meditation, 20110331 Many people 69 1-sec -0.485 0.686
~374. Earthday 2011, 20110422 Many people 71 1-sec 0.282 0.389
~375. Sai Baba Dies, 20110424 Osipiak, Nelson 69 1-sec -2.629 0.996
~376. Royal Wedding, 20110429 Nelson 69 1-sec -0.102 0.541
~377. Pope Paul Beatification, 20110501 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.450 0.325
~378. Bin Laden Killed, 20110502 Radin, Bancel, Shoup, Nelson 68 1-sec 0.363 0.358
~379. Tornado Joplin MO, 20110522 Nelson 71 1-sec 0.663 0.254
~380. Atlantis, Last Launch, 20110708 Kyle Hassler 66 1-sec 1.179 0.119
~381. Women's World Cup, 20110717 Shoup, Nelson 65 1-sec -0.224 0.589
~382. Oslo Bomb, Murder, 20110722 Hans Wendt 67 1-sec 1.616 0.053
~383. China Train Crash, 20110723 Nelson 67 1-sec 0.618 0.268
~384. Downgrade+Helicopter, 20110805 Nelson 65 1-sec -0.560 0.712
~385. UK Rioting, 20110808 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.788 0.215
~386. Rain in Tunisia, 20110814 Houck, Taylor 68 1-sec 0.878 0.190
~387. Libya Day 1, 20110821 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.837 0.201
~388. East Coast Quake, 20110823 Green, Wendt, Keith N, Verheyen 65 1-sec 1.594 0.055
~389. Hurricane Irene, 20110827 Wendt, Nelson 65 1-sec 1.171 0.121
~390. 10th Anniversary 9/11, 20110911 Many people 67 1-sec 0.136 0.446
~391. Internat Peace Day 2011, 20110921 Many people 66 1-sec 3.136 0.001
~392. Troy Davis Execution, 20110922 Carol Morrison 67 1-sec -0.507 0.694
~393. Wall Street Protests, 20110924 Dr Goobs 68 1-sec 0.858 0.195
~394. Bombing, Mogadishu, 20111004 Nelson 65 1-sec -1.988 0.977
~395. Steve Jobs RIP, 20111005 Hassler, Conan-Davies, Cheng 65 1-sec 2.145 0.016
~396. Thailand and Greece, 20111019 Reinhilde Nelson 34 1-sec -2.935 0.998
~397. Gaddafi Killed, 20111020 Many people 34 1-sec 2.380 0.009
~398. Earthquake Turkey, 20111023 Nelson 44 1-sec 1.752 0.040
~399. 11-11-11 Meditations, 20111111 Many people 56 1-sec -0.124 0.549
~400. Kabul Shiite Bombing, 20111206 Nelson 60 1-sec -0.533 0.703
~401. Gunman in Liege, 20111213 Nelson 61 1-sec -0.029 0.511
~402. Philippine Floods, 20111217 Wendt 61 1-sec 0.121 0.452
~403. Kim Jong-Il Dies, 20111219 Nelson 61 1-sec 0.155 0.438
~404. New Year Means, 20120101 Roger Nelson 58 1-sec 0.440 0.330
~405. New Year Var, 20120101 Roger Nelson 58 1-sec 0.898 0.185
~406. Cruise Ship Disaster, 20120113 Hans Wendt 60 1-sec -0.476 0.683
~407. SOPA Blackout, 20120120 Matt Kolasinski 58 1-sec -1.119 0.885
~408. State of the Union 2012, 20120124 Roger Nelson 60 1-sec -0.112 0.545
~409. Syrian Tragedy Cont., 20120209 Roger Nelson 62 1-sec 1.084 0.139
~410. Honduran Prison Fire, 20120214 Roger Nelson 59 1-sec 0.757 0.225
~411. Do As One Day 2012, 20120310 Roger Nelson 57 1-sec -2.730 0.997
~412. Oakland Shootings, 20120402 Wendt, Nelson 53 1-sec -0.659 0.745
~413. Mogadishu Bombing, 20120404 Wendt, Nelson 57 1-sec 1.987 0.023
~414. Pakistan Avalanche, 20120407 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.798 0.212
~415. Bengal Ferry Disaster, 20120430 Nelson 60 1-sec -0.486 0.687
~416. Climate Impact Day, 20120505 Nelson 58 1-sec 1.165 0.122
~417. Damascus Bombing, 20120510 Nelson 58 1-sec -0.355 0.639
~418. Massacre Syria, 20120525 Nelson 61 1-sec -0.799 0.788
~419. Obamacare SCOTUS, 20120628 Nelson 62 1-sec 1.222 0.111
~420. Mexico Election, 20120701 Alejandro Gallardo 61 1-sec 1.429 0.076
~421. Massacre, Tremseh, 20120712 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.197 0.422
~422. Batman Shooting, 20120720 Wendt, Nelson 55 1-sec 1.595 0.055
~423. Olympic Open, London, 20120727 Nelson 49 1-sec -0.274 0.608
~424. Sikh Temple Shootings, 20120805 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.341 0.366
~425. Romney Acceptance, 20120830 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.121 0.452
~426. Burning Man 2012, 20120901 IONS team, Nelson 54 1-sec 0.783 0.217
~427. Obama Acceptance, 20120906 Nelson 54 1-sec -1.031 0.849
~428. Karachi Factory Fire, 20120911 Nelson 50 1-sec 0.413 0.340
~429. Internat Day Peace, 20120921 Many People & Orgs 50 1-sec 1.308 0.095
~430. Sandy Hits GCP, 20121029 Lian Siderov 52 1-sec -0.164 0.565
~431. Obama Re-elected, 20121106 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.414 0.079
~432. Palestine UN Vote, 20121106 Nelson 52 1-sec -0.855 0.804
~433. Philippine Typhoon, 20121204 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.580 0.281
~434. Mastershift Meditations, 20121212 Bethke, Nelson 57 1-sec 0.378 0.353
~435. School Shooting CT, 20121214 Nelson 56 1-sec -1.277 0.899
~436. End of Mayan Calendar, 20121221 Many people 55 1-sec 1.008 0.157
~437. Dr. Tomorrow Passes, 20121230 Jim Semenick, Nelson 56 1-sec 2.064 0.019
~438. New Year Means, 20130101 Roger Nelson 56 1-sec 0.444 0.329
~439. New Year Var, 20130101 Roger Nelson 56 1-sec -0.176 0.570
~440. Quetta Bombing, 20130110 Abdulsamad Khan, Nelson 55 1-sec 0.563 0.287
~441. Obama 2nd Inauguration, 20130120 Reinhilde Nelson 53 1-sec -1.618 0.947
~442. Brazil Club Fire, 20130127 Duggan, Wendt, Others 54 1-sec -0.373 0.646
~443. Kumbh Mela 2013, 20130210 Nelson, Wendt 51 1-sec 1.116 0.132
~444. Pope Benedikt Resigns, 20130211 Wendt, Nelson 50 1-sec 1.359 0.087
~445. V-day and Toning, 20130214 Goldman, Wee, Nelson, others 50 1-sec 0.005 0.498
~446. Hugo Chavez Dies, 20130305 Michael Duggan 55 1-sec -0.417 0.662
~447. International Women's Day, 20130308 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec 0.943 0.173
~448. Pope Francis Elected, 20130313 Duggan, Nazet, Wendt, Nelson 55 1-sec 0.891 0.186
~449. Boston Bombing, 20130415 Wendt, Nelson 55 1-sec -0.723 0.765
~450. Thatcher Funeral, 20130417 Duggan, Wendt 54 1-sec -0.260 0.603
~451. Earthquake, Sichuan, 20130420 Nelson 53 1-sec 1.411 0.079
~452. Bangladesh Factory Collapse, 20130424 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.404 0.657


Graph of Accumulating Deviations: The Complete Formal Database

4he two following figures represent the history of our formal hypothesis testing. The first shows the Z-scores for more than 425 formally specified events in an ordinary scatterplot. While there is a noticeable positive bias, it is not easy to see its significance. Yet the odds against chance of this meanshift over a database this size are about a hundred billion to one.

Z-score deviation,

The second figure displays the same data as a cumulative deviation from chance expectation (shown as the horizontal black line at 0 deviation). Truly random data would produce a jagged curve with no slope, wandering up and down around the horizontal. The dotted smooth curves show the 0.05 and 0.001 and 0.000001 probability envelopes that indicate significant versus chance excursions. This figure can be compared with a "control distribution" using simulations of the event series.

The jagged red line shows the accumulating excess of the empirically normalized Z-scores relative to expectation for the complete dataset of rigorously defined events. The overall result is highly significant. The odds against chance are much greater than a million to one.

cumulative deviation, chisquare

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