Bangladesh Hurricane and Flooding

Report: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 16 Nov 2007. (link from Hans Wendt).

Cyclone Sidr (Category IV) hit Bangladesh on 15 November. The cyclone, originating in the Bay of Bengal, hit offshore islands at 1830 hours and made landfall across the southern coast from Cox's Bazaar to Satkhira districts at 2030 hours local time. Heavy rains were experienced throughout the country, including the capital Dhaka. The first area hit by Cyclone Sidr was Hiron Point and part of the mangrove forest Sundarbans in Bagerhat and Dublar Char Island in Barguna. According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, SIDR has a radius of 500 kilometres with the eye of the storm being 74 kilometres and wind speeds of 220-240 kilometres per hour. As the storm moved into central Bangladesh it was downgraded to a Category II tropical storm and is currently in the northeast of the country.

Significant and wide-spread storm damage is expected throughout Bangladesh. Joint assessment teams were launched, however information collection on casualty and damage figures are in the early stages and hindered as communication on off-shore islands remains cut off. Initial unconfirmed reports indicate that the death toll is over 1,100 people, with reports of over 15,000 people injured. Three coastal towns (Patuakhali, Barguna and Jhalakathi) with a combined population of 700,000 were inundated by a 5 meter (15 feet) high water surge triggered by the cyclone. Over 20,000 houses damaged in the two worst affected districts and at least 30,000 families affected in two reported districts out of the 15 hardest hit districts. Reports from Cox's Bazaar indicate that quite a number of fishermen remain missing. The needs are expected to be concentrated on food, shelter and emergency health assistance.

The GCP hypothesis prediction was based on that for Katrina, with a period beginning at landfall and continuing for 24 hours. The period begins at 18:30 Calcutta time on Nov 15 (15:00 UTC). Chisquare is 87011 on 86400 df, for p = 0.071 and Z = 1.469. The cumulative deviation has a strong low going trend for about 8 hours, then a much stronger positive trend over the rest of the period.

Hurricane and Flooding

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