Obama Acceptance Speech, Denver
A number of people suggested that the culminating event of the Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama's speech formally accepting the party nomination, should be a global event. For example, on Fri, 29 Aug 2008, Anna Zaigraeva wrote:
We did indeed plan a formal analysis, as part of a developing series of replications of political events that, while US-centric, nevertheless interest huge numbers of people around the world.
I did not note the exact time Obama's speech began, nor could I find authoritative timing via Google, but it was certainly well after the appointed time (8 pm in Denver, Colorado). The GCP event was set for a two hour period that would definitely include all of the Obama address, as well as a bit of the prelude and introduction and probably at least half an hour of aftermath.
The result is a positive trend, with Chisquare 7446.76 on 7200 df, for p = 0.021 and Z = 2.039. The graph shows a fairly consistent trend, beginning at 8 pm, local time in Denver, before the speech began and continuing for about an hour post speech.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.