Djindjic Assassination in Serbia
Prediction, Roger Nelson. Event on March 12, 2003
Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, who fought to transform his country from pariah nation to pro-Western democracy, was assassinated on Wednesday and the government swiftly declared a state of emergency. The prime minister died from his wounds at 13:30 (12:30 GMT) at Belgrade emergency center. According to TimesOnline he was shot at 12:35 local Belgrade time (11:35 GMT).
The formal assessment period will be from 11:30 to 14:30 GMT, to include a little time before the murder, and a couple of hours for the news to spread. Standard analysis, seconds.
The result is a strong declining trend with Chisquare or 10498 on 10800 df and a probability of 0.981, which is equivalent to odds of about 2 in 100 of being a chance effect. Of course this is opposite to our standard prediction, but it may be meaningful, as is suggested by the second graph below.
It seems worthwhile to look at the larger context to see if there might be any more indications that this is what appears to be an important event on the world stage. The next figure shows the full 24 hour day, with the assassination marked. These graphs should not be over-interpreted, but it is striking. After an ordinary random walk for most of the morning, the graph shows a very steady negative trend beginning a little before the shooting and continuing for the rest of the day. A purely aesthetic interpretation might see "global consciousness" recognizing with sadness the loss of a good man who was making genuing progress toward regaining a civilized stature for his country.